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I Liga · Poland
Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Arka Gdynia host Nieciecza in the I Liga (Poland) on 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Arka Gdynia had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 15. Nieciecza had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Arka Gdynia's last 10 and 8 of Nieciecza's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Arka Gdynia averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Nieciecza averaged 2.35 scored and 1.76 conceded across 17.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.40 goals from Arka Gdynia and 1.61 from Nieciecza. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 42%, against 41%, 26% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Arka Gdynia (green) and Nieciecza (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia | LLLLD | 1.20 | 1.50 | 50% | 60% |
| Nieciecza | WDWWW | 2.10 | 1.40 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 May 2026 · Arka Gdynia 2–3 Nieciecza
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Arka Gdynia Win | 42% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other I Liga matches that day
- Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk · 24 Oct 2026, 15:45 UTC · I Liga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 - Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · I Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · I Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44