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Ekstraklasa · Poland
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Zaglebie Lubin host Jagiellonia in the Ekstraklasa (Poland) on 18 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Zaglebie Lubin 1–0 Jagiellonia.
Going into the match, Zaglebie Lubin had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 13. Jagiellonia had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 and 8 of Jagiellonia's last 10; 5 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Zaglebie Lubin averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.81 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Jagiellonia averaged 1.69 scored and 1.15 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.15 goals from Zaglebie Lubin and 1.19 from Jagiellonia. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 35%, against 36%, 26% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Zaglebie Lubin (green) and Jagiellonia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaglebie Lubin | LWLWW | 1.20 | 1.30 | 60% | 50% |
| Jagiellonia | WLLWL | 2.00 | 1.80 | 80% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 23 May 2026 · Jagiellonia 1–0 Zaglebie Lubin
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ekstraklasa matches that day
- Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce · 18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Ekstraklasa
Published pick: Lech Poznan Win @ 1.44 · FT 6–1 - Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice · 18 Oct 2026, 10:15 UTC · Ekstraklasa
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1