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Ekstraklasa · Poland
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lech Poznan host Korona Kielce in the Ekstraklasa (Poland) on 18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Lech Poznan Win — Lech Poznan to win. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lech Poznan 6–1 Korona Kielce.
Going into the match, Lech Poznan had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 19. Korona Kielce had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Lech Poznan's last 10 and 6 of Korona Kielce's last 10; 9 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lech Poznan averaged 2.41 goals scored and 1.12 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Korona Kielce averaged 0.90 scored and 1.40 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.46 goals from Lech Poznan and 0.83 from Korona Kielce. From that it rates a home win at 72%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 10%, against 64%, 21% and 15% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lech Poznan (green) and Korona Kielce (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | LWDWL | 2.00 | 1.90 | 70% | 90% |
| Korona Kielce | LLWLW | 1.30 | 1.50 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 80% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Lech Poznan Win | 64% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ekstraklasa matches that day
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia · 18 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC · Ekstraklasa
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice · 18 Oct 2026, 10:15 UTC · Ekstraklasa
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1