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Persha Liga · Ukraine
Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Yarud Mariupol' host Inhulets in the Persha Liga (Ukraine) on 17 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Yarud Mariupol' to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.21, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Yarud Mariupol' 4–1 Inhulets.
Going into the match, Yarud Mariupol' had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 8. Inhulets had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Yarud Mariupol''s last 10 and 5 of Inhulets's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Yarud Mariupol' averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Inhulets averaged 0.92 scored and 1.38 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.88 goals from Yarud Mariupol' and 0.67 from Inhulets. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 12%, against 49%, 28% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 88%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Yarud Mariupol' (green) and Inhulets (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yarud Mariupol' | WDDWW | 2.00 | 0.80 | 60% | 50% |
| Inhulets | LLWWD | 0.90 | 1.40 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Yarud Mariupol' 1–1 Inhulets
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.21 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.77 |
| Yarud Mariupol' Win | 49% | 1.84 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Persha Liga matches that day
- SK Poltava vs Prykarpattia · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Persha Liga
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 4–0 - Kolos Kovalivka II vs UCSA · 17 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC · Persha Liga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.63 · FT 0–0 - Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Chernihiv · 17 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC · Persha Liga
Published pick: Double Chance 1X · FT 2–1