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League One · China
Yanbian Longding vs Dongguan United prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Yanbian Longding host Dongguan United in the League One (China) on 17 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Yanbian Longding 5–0 Dongguan United.
Going into the match, Yanbian Longding had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 16. Dongguan United had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 23 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Yanbian Longding's last 10 and 7 of Dongguan United's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Yanbian Longding averaged 1.31 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Dongguan United averaged 1.31 scored and 2.23 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.57 goals from Yanbian Longding and 0.79 from Dongguan United. From that it rates a home win at 75%, a draw at 16% and an away win at 9%, against 60%, 23% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Yanbian Longding (green) and Dongguan United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yanbian Longding | LDLLL | 1.10 | 1.60 | 70% | 50% |
| Dongguan United | LWDLD | 1.00 | 2.30 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Jun 2026 · Dongguan United 0–2 Yanbian Longding
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Yanbian Longding Win | 60% | 1.50 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 60% | 1.54 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other League One matches that day
- Guangxi Hengchen vs Changchun Yatai · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · League One
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–2 - Shenzhen Juniors vs Dalian Huayi · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1 - Wuxi Wugou vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 - Ningbo Professional vs Suzhou Dongwu · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.40 · FT 1–1