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League One · China
Guangxi Hengchen vs Changchun Yatai prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Guangxi Hengchen host Changchun Yatai in the League One (China) on 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Guangxi Hengchen 2–2 Changchun Yatai.
Going into the match, Guangxi Hengchen had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Changchun Yatai had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Guangxi Hengchen's last 10 and 5 of Changchun Yatai's last 10; 2 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Guangxi Hengchen averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.58 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Changchun Yatai averaged 1.42 scored and 1.75 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.10 goals from Guangxi Hengchen and 1.29 from Changchun Yatai. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 22%, against 66%, 21% and 14% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Guangxi Hengchen (green) and Changchun Yatai (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guangxi Hengchen | DLWWW | 1.10 | 0.90 | 30% | 20% |
| Changchun Yatai | DDLDW | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Jun 2026 · Changchun Yatai 1–2 Guangxi Hengchen
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Guangxi Hengchen Win | 66% | 1.36 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other League One matches that day
- Shenzhen Juniors vs Dalian Huayi · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1 - Wuxi Wugou vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 - Ningbo Professional vs Suzhou Dongwu · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.40 · FT 1–1 - Yanbian Longding vs Dongguan United · 17 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC · League One
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44