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Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ prediction and preview
16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
VVV Venlo host Jong AZ in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) on 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: VVV Venlo 4–4 Jong AZ.
Going into the match, VVV Venlo had won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 26 and conceding 14. Jong AZ had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of VVV Venlo's last 10 and 8 of Jong AZ's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home VVV Venlo averaged 2.42 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Jong AZ averaged 3.00 scored and 2.00 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.58 goals from VVV Venlo and 2.22 from Jong AZ. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 34%, against 45%, 24% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between VVV Venlo (green) and Jong AZ (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS Yes | 72% | 1.30 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
| VVV Venlo Win | 44% | 2.10 |
| VVV Venlo HT & FT | 30% | 3.25 |
| 1-1 | 11% | 9.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Eerste Divisie matches that day
- Den Bosch vs FC OSS · 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 · FT 2–1 - FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse · 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 0–1 - Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda · 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eerste Divisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 · FT 0–2