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Serie A · Brazil
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Vitoria host Atletico Paranaense in the Serie A (Brazil) on 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.75, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Vitoria had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 15. Atletico Paranaense had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Vitoria's last 10 and 8 of Atletico Paranaense's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Vitoria averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.89 conceded across 19 matches; away from home Atletico Paranaense averaged 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.58 goals from Vitoria and 1.49 from Atletico Paranaense. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 35%, against 36%, 29% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Vitoria (green) and Atletico Paranaense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | DLWLD | 1.10 | 1.50 | 50% | 50% |
| Atletico Paranaense | LWDWD | 2.10 | 1.80 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 7 Aug 2026 · Vitoria 4–0 Atletico Paranaense
- 4 Aug 2026 · Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Vitoria
- 27 Apr 2026 · Atletico Paranaense 3–1 Vitoria
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Internacional vs Botafogo · 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Mirassol vs Sao Paulo · 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Cruzeiro vs Remo · 23 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50