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Serie A · Brazil
Mirassol vs Sao Paulo prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Mirassol host Sao Paulo in the Serie A (Brazil) on 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Mirassol had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 9. Sao Paulo had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Mirassol's last 10 and 4 of Sao Paulo's last 10; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Mirassol averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Sao Paulo averaged 0.56 scored and 1.44 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.27 goals from Mirassol and 0.82 from Sao Paulo. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 23%, against 42%, 29% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 84%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Mirassol (green) and Sao Paulo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Apr 2026 · Sao Paulo 1–0 Mirassol
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 1X | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Internacional vs Botafogo · 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense · 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.75 - Cruzeiro vs Remo · 23 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50