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Serie A · Italy
Venezia vs Napoli prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Venezia host Napoli in the Serie A (Italy) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Venezia 1–0 Napoli.
Going into the match, Venezia had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 26. Napoli had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Venezia's last 10 and 6 of Napoli's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Venezia averaged 2.63 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Napoli averaged 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.56 goals from Venezia and 2.01 from Napoli. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 47%, against 20%, 24% and 56% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Venezia (green) and Napoli (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Napoli Win | 56% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- AS Roma vs Genoa · 17 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: AS Roma Win @ 1.55 · FT 2–0 - Bologna vs Inter · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 1–3