AS Roma vs Genoa prediction and preview

17 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

AS Roma WinOdds 1.55Market probability 64%Final score 2–0

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

AS Roma host Genoa in the Serie A (Italy) on 17 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is AS Roma Win — AS Roma to win. It was published at odds of 1.55, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: AS Roma 2–0 Genoa.

Going into the match, AS Roma had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 13. Genoa had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 15 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of AS Roma's last 10 and 5 of Genoa's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AS Roma averaged 2.63 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Genoa averaged 0.56 scored and 1.89 conceded across 9.

Our team-strength model expects about 2.67 goals from AS Roma and 0.68 from Genoa. From that it rates a home win at 79%, a draw at 15% and an away win at 6%, against 61%, 23% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between AS Roma (green) and Genoa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form73% – 27%

Attack67% – 33%

Defence75% – 25%

Head-to-head71% – 29%

Goals64% – 36%

Overall strength72% – 27%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
AS Roma	LDDWD	2.00	1.30	50%	70%
Genoa	WLLWD	1.00	1.50	50%	40%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	78%	1.22
Over 1.5 Goals	76%	1.25
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	70%	1.33
Under 3.5 Goals	68%	1.36
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	63%	1.50
AS Roma Win	62%	1.55
Over 8.5 Corners	56%	1.67
Over 2.5 Goals	53%	1.80

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.