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First League · Russia
Veles vs Shinnik Yaroslavl prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Veles host Shinnik Yaroslavl in the First League (Russia) on 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Veles 1–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl.
Going into the match, Veles had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Shinnik Yaroslavl had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Veles's last 10 and 3 of Shinnik Yaroslavl's last 10; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Veles averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.13 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Shinnik Yaroslavl averaged 1.18 scored and 1.27 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.00 goals from Veles and 1.10 from Shinnik Yaroslavl. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 36%, against 39%, 32% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Veles (green) and Shinnik Yaroslavl (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veles | WLDLL | 1.20 | 1.20 | 60% | 40% |
| Shinnik Yaroslavl | LWDLD | 1.20 | 0.90 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 70% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.49 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.54 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 58% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.67 |
| Veles Win | 40% | 2.42 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 37% | 2.61 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other First League matches that day
- Tekstilshchik vs Chelyabinsk · 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.37 · FT 2–1 - Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.35 - Ska-khabarovsk vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 18 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.77 · FT 1–2