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First League · Russia
Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ural host Nizhny Novgorod in the First League (Russia) on 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.35, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ural 1–2 Nizhny Novgorod.
Going into the match, Ural had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 9. Nizhny Novgorod had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 31 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Ural's last 10 and 6 of Nizhny Novgorod's last 10; 5 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ural averaged 1.46 goals scored and 0.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Nizhny Novgorod averaged 1.77 scored and 1.46 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.30 goals from Ural and 1.73 from Nizhny Novgorod. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 47%, against 35%, 32% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 82%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ural (green) and Nizhny Novgorod (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ural | LWWDL | 1.60 | 0.90 | 60% | 50% |
| Nizhny Novgorod | WWWWW | 3.10 | 1.00 | 60% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.43 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 60% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.68 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.84 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.19 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other First League matches that day
- Veles vs Shinnik Yaroslavl · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 1–1 - Tekstilshchik vs Chelyabinsk · 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.37 · FT 2–1 - Ska-khabarovsk vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 18 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · First League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.77 · FT 1–2