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Ligue 1 · Tunisia
US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
US Ben Guerdane host Stade Tunisien in the Ligue 1 (Tunisia) on 23 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Stade Tunisien to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, US Ben Guerdane had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 8. Stade Tunisien had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of US Ben Guerdane's last 10 and 6 of Stade Tunisien's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home US Ben Guerdane averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Stade Tunisien averaged 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.77 goals from US Ben Guerdane and 0.94 from Stade Tunisien. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 19%, against 33%, 33% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 44%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between US Ben Guerdane (green) and Stade Tunisien (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Ben Guerdane | WWWDD | 1.20 | 0.80 | 40% | 30% |
| Stade Tunisien | WWLDW | 1.00 | 1.10 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 8 May 2026 · Stade Tunisien 0–0 US Ben Guerdane
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 69% | 1.28 |
| BTTS No | 60% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 55% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 35% | 2.70 |
| Stade Tunisien Win | 34% | 2.62 |
| 0-0 | 20% | 4.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 1 matches that day
- AS Marsa vs CS Hammam-Lif · 23 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.50 - CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 23 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.40 - Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Olympique Béja · 23 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.44