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1. Lig · Turkey
Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ümraniyespor host Sivasspor in the 1. Lig (Turkey) on 24 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Ümraniyespor had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Sivasspor had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Ümraniyespor's last 10 and 9 of Sivasspor's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ümraniyespor averaged 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Sivasspor averaged 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.98 goals from Ümraniyespor and 1.35 from Sivasspor. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 44%, against 40%, 28% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ümraniyespor (green) and Sivasspor (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ümraniyespor | WDWLL | 0.90 | 1.00 | 50% | 30% |
| Sivasspor | DDWDD | 1.50 | 1.40 | 90% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other 1. Lig matches that day
- Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük · 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Muğlaspor vs İstanbulspor · 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır FK · 24 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33