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1. Lig · Turkey
Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sarıyer host Fatih Karagümrük in the 1. Lig (Turkey) on 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Sarıyer had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 15. Fatih Karagümrük had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Sarıyer's last 10 and 8 of Fatih Karagümrük's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sarıyer averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Fatih Karagümrük averaged 0.88 scored and 1.38 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.15 goals from Sarıyer and 1.23 from Fatih Karagümrük. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 37%, against 38%, 29% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sarıyer (green) and Fatih Karagümrük (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarıyer | DLDWD | 1.20 | 1.50 | 80% | 50% |
| Fatih Karagümrük | LLDWD | 1.40 | 1.30 | 80% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.08 |
| Sarıyer Win | 38% | 2.38 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other 1. Lig matches that day
- Muğlaspor vs İstanbulspor · 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır FK · 24 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor · 24 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28