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Serie A · Italy
Udinese vs Lecce prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Udinese host Lecce in the Serie A (Italy) on 18 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Udinese 0–3 Lecce.
Going into the match, Udinese had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 15. Lecce had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Udinese's last 10 and 4 of Lecce's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Udinese averaged 1.15 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Lecce averaged 0.89 scored and 1.22 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.32 goals from Udinese and 1.23 from Lecce. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 33%, against 52%, 27% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Udinese (green) and Lecce (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Udinese Win | 52% | 1.83 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Juventus vs Lazio · 18 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Juventus Win @ 1.67 - AC Milan vs Atalanta · 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 3–2 - Fiorentina vs Como · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 1–3