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Serie A · Italy
Fiorentina vs Como prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fiorentina host Como in the Serie A (Italy) on 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fiorentina 1–3 Como.
Going into the match, Fiorentina had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 18. Como had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Fiorentina's last 10 and 7 of Como's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fiorentina averaged 1.77 goals scored and 0.85 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Como averaged 1.71 scored and 1.29 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.03 goals from Fiorentina and 1.99 from Como. From that it rates a home win at 18%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 59%, against 27%, 26% and 46% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fiorentina (green) and Como (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | LDWWL | 1.70 | 1.80 | 70% | 80% |
| Como | LDLWW | 1.60 | 1.10 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance X2 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Juventus vs Lazio · 18 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Juventus Win @ 1.67 - AC Milan vs Atalanta · 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 3–2 - Udinese vs Lecce · 18 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 0–3