Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan prediction and preview

17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Double Chance X2Odds 1.40Market probability 64%Final score 3–1

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Thor Akureyri host Stjarnan in the Úrvalsdeild (Iceland) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Stjarnan to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Thor Akureyri 3–1 Stjarnan.

Going into the match, Thor Akureyri had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 15. Stjarnan had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 18 conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of Thor Akureyri's last 10 and 5 of Stjarnan's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Thor Akureyri averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Stjarnan averaged 1.60 scored and 2.47 conceded across 15.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.37 goals from Thor Akureyri and 1.77 from Stjarnan. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 46%, against 35%, 24% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Thor Akureyri (green) and Stjarnan (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form56% – 44%

Attack33% – 67%

Defence59% – 41%

Head-to-head29% – 71%

Goals47% – 53%

Overall strength45% – 55%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Thor Akureyri	WLLWW	0.70	1.50	20%	30%
Stjarnan	LLWDW	1.70	1.80	50%	60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

23 Aug 2026 · Stjarnan 4–2 Thor Akureyri
31 May 2026 · Thor Akureyri 1–3 Stjarnan

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	79%	1.20
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	77%	1.20
BTTS Yes	69%	1.36
BTTS 1st Half - No	69%	1.36
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	51%	1.80
Stjarnan Win	42%	2.20
Stjarnan HT & FT	27%	3.40
Draw	22%	3.75

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.