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Úrvalsdeild · Iceland
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Keflavik host KR Reykjavik in the Úrvalsdeild (Iceland) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is KR Reykjavik Win — KR Reykjavik to win. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Keflavik 2–3 KR Reykjavik.
Going into the match, Keflavik had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 19. KR Reykjavik had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 29 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Keflavik's last 10 and 9 of KR Reykjavik's last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Keflavik averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 12 matches; away from home KR Reykjavik averaged 2.77 scored and 2.38 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.83 goals from Keflavik and 2.59 from KR Reykjavik. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 54%, against 24%, 19% and 57% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Keflavik (green) and KR Reykjavik (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keflavik | LDLLL | 1.30 | 1.90 | 60% | 70% |
| KR Reykjavik | WLWLD | 2.90 | 1.70 | 90% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 28 Jun 2026 · Keflavik 3–2 KR Reykjavik
- 12 Apr 2026 · KR Reykjavik 3–2 Keflavik
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 63% | 1.50 |
| KR Reykjavik Win | 58% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 2nd Half Higher Goals | 45% | 2.05 |
| KR Reykjavik HT & FT | 40% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Úrvalsdeild matches that day
- Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Úrvalsdeild
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.40 · FT 3–1 - Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Úrvalsdeild
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.44