Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC prediction and preview

16 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Over 1.5 GoalsOdds 1.33Market probability 70%Final score 0–2

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Sport Recife host Fortaleza EC in the Serie B (Brazil) on 16 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Sport Recife 0–2 Fortaleza EC.

Going into the match, Sport Recife had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 13. Fortaleza EC had won 5, drawn 5 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 8 conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of Sport Recife's last 10 and 6 of Fortaleza EC's last 10; 8 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sport Recife averaged 1.89 goals scored and 0.89 conceded across 19 matches; away from home Fortaleza EC averaged 0.82 scored and 0.82 conceded across 22.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.08 goals from Sport Recife and 1.00 from Fortaleza EC. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 32%, against 40%, 30% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Sport Recife (green) and Fortaleza EC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form53% – 47%

Attack50% – 50%

Defence46% – 54%

Head-to-head20% – 80%

Goals27% – 73%

Overall strength42% – 57%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Sport Recife	DWWLW	1.60	1.30	80%	80%
Fortaleza EC	DWDDW	1.40	0.80	60%	30%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

29 Jun 2026 · Fortaleza EC 2–1 Sport Recife
28 May 2026 · Sport Recife 0–2 Fortaleza EC
21 May 2026 · Fortaleza EC 1–2 Sport Recife
30 Apr 2026 · Fortaleza EC 2–0 Sport Recife

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	71%	1.33
Over 1.5 Goals	70%	1.33
Double Chance 1X	69%	1.33
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	66%	1.44
Under 2.5 Goals	55%	1.70
BTTS Yes	51%	1.83
Over 2.5 Goals	45%	2.10
Sport Recife Win	40%	2.38

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.