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Serie B · Brazil
Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense prediction and preview
16 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ponte Preta host Atletico Goianiense in the Serie B (Brazil) on 16 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ponte Preta 1–1 Atletico Goianiense.
Going into the match, Ponte Preta had won 1, drawn 0 and lost 9 of their last 10 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 25. Atletico Goianiense had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 1 of Ponte Preta's last 10 and 4 of Atletico Goianiense's last 10; 2 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ponte Preta averaged 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Atletico Goianiense averaged 0.81 scored and 0.88 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.52 goals from Ponte Preta and 1.90 from Atletico Goianiense. From that it rates a home win at 8%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 70%, against 9%, 19% and 73% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ponte Preta (green) and Atletico Goianiense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | LLLLW | 0.20 | 2.50 | 10% | 20% |
| Atletico Goianiense | DLWWL | 1.70 | 0.80 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 28 Jun 2026 · Atletico Goianiense 2–0 Ponte Preta
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Atletico Goianiense Win | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 57% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Atletico Goianiense 1st Half Win | 55% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie B matches that day
- Ceara vs Juventude · 17 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC · 16 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33