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Allsvenskan · Sweden
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sirius host IF Elfsborg in the Allsvenskan (Sweden) on 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sirius 2–2 IF Elfsborg.
Going into the match, Sirius had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 12. IF Elfsborg had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Sirius's last 10 and 3 of IF Elfsborg's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sirius averaged 2.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 12 matches; away from home IF Elfsborg averaged 1.38 scored and 1.00 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.40 goals from Sirius and 1.16 from IF Elfsborg. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 30%, against 47%, 26% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sirius (green) and IF Elfsborg (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius | WDWWW | 1.40 | 1.20 | 40% | 40% |
| IF Elfsborg | WLWWL | 1.90 | 0.50 | 30% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Jul 2026 · IF Elfsborg 1–3 Sirius
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Allsvenskan matches that day
- Halmstad vs Hammarby FF · 18 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Allsvenskan
Published pick: Hammarby FF Win @ 1.25 · FT 0–1 - Malmo FF vs BK Hacken · 18 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Allsvenskan
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 0–1 - Orgryte IS vs Gais · 18 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Allsvenskan
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 4–2 - Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF · 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Allsvenskan
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–0