Şimal vs Baku Sportinq prediction and preview

22 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Over 2.5 GoalsOdds 1.73Market probability 55%Final score 5–2

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Şimal host Baku Sportinq in the Birinci Dasta (Azerbaijan) on 22 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.73, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Şimal 5–2 Baku Sportinq.

Going into the match, Şimal had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 14. Baku Sportinq had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 17 conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of Şimal's last 10 and 4 of Baku Sportinq's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Şimal averaged 0.88 goals scored and 1.63 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Baku Sportinq averaged 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded across 5.

Our team-strength model expects about 3.06 goals from Şimal and 0.92 from Baku Sportinq. From that it rates a home win at 79%, a draw at 13% and an away win at 8%, against 53%, 25% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Şimal (green) and Baku Sportinq (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form100% – 0%

Attack89% – 11%

Defence57% – 43%

Head-to-head33% – 67%

Goals29% – 71%

Overall strength52% – 48%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Şimal	WDLDL	1.40	1.40	80%	50%
Baku Sportinq	LLLLL	0.90	1.70	40%	50%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

23 Apr 2026 · Şimal 1–0 Baku Sportinq

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	75%	1.22
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	72%	1.29
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	63%	1.48
Over 2.5 Goals	55%	1.73
Şimal Win	53%	1.70
BTTS Yes	51%	1.85
Over 8.5 Corners	50%	1.83
Şimal HT & FT	36%	2.62

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.