Sassuolo vs Lazio prediction and preview

27 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.44Market probability 65%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Sassuolo host Lazio in the Serie A (Italy) on 27 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Sassuolo had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 17. Lazio had won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 8 conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of Sassuolo's last 10 and 5 of Lazio's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sassuolo averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.17 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Lazio averaged 1.55 scored and 0.73 conceded across 11.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.12 goals from Sassuolo and 2.08 from Lazio. From that it rates a home win at 19%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 58%, against 30%, 27% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Sassuolo (green) and Lazio (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form24% – 76%

Attack37% – 63%

Defence27% – 73%

Head-to-head29% – 71%

Goals30% – 70%

Overall strength26% – 73%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Sassuolo	LLDLW	1.60	1.70	80%	70%
Lazio	WWWDW	2.10	0.80	50%	60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	78%	1.22
BTTS 1st Half - No	77%	1.22
Double Chance 12	73%	1.30
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	70%	1.33
Under 3.5 Goals	65%	1.44
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	63%	1.50
BTTS Yes	59%	1.57
Over 2.5 Goals	56%	1.73

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.