AS Roma vs Cagliari prediction and preview

27 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.44Market probability 66%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

AS Roma host Cagliari in the Serie A (Italy) on 27 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, AS Roma had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 11. Cagliari had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 11 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of AS Roma's last 10 and 3 of Cagliari's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AS Roma averaged 2.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Cagliari averaged 0.89 scored and 1.22 conceded across 9.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.95 goals from AS Roma and 0.63 from Cagliari. From that it rates a home win at 68%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 10%, against 70%, 20% and 11% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between AS Roma (green) and Cagliari (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form56% – 44%

Attack69% – 31%

Defence62% – 38%

Head-to-head71% – 29%

Goals88% – 13%

Overall strength70% – 29%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
AS Roma	DWWLD	2.30	1.10	50%	60%
Cagliari	LLDWW	0.80	1.10	30%	30%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	77%	1.22
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	72%	1.30
AS Roma Win	70%	1.36
Under 3.5 Goals	66%	1.44
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	63%	1.50
Over 2.5 Goals	55%	1.73
BTTS No	54%	1.75
Under 9.5 Corners	54%	1.73

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.