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Serie B · Brazil
São Bernardo vs Criciuma prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
São Bernardo host Criciuma in the Serie B (Brazil) on 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: São Bernardo 0–1 Criciuma.
Going into the match, São Bernardo had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 10. Criciuma had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of São Bernardo's last 10 and 1 of Criciuma's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home São Bernardo averaged 1.12 goals scored and 1.06 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Criciuma averaged 1.00 scored and 1.21 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.10 goals from São Bernardo and 0.83 from Criciuma. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 26%, against 31%, 30% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between São Bernardo (green) and Criciuma (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo | DLWDW | 1.40 | 1.00 | 60% | 50% |
| Criciuma | WLWWL | 0.90 | 1.30 | 10% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Jun 2026 · Criciuma 1–0 São Bernardo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance X2 | 69% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.73 |
| Criciuma Win | 38% | 2.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie B matches that day
- Avai vs Athletic Club · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–0 - CRB vs Botafogo SP · 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: CRB Win @ 1.62 - America Mineiro vs Operario-PR · 17 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 · FT 1–0