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Serie B · Italy
Sampdoria vs Arezzo prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sampdoria host Arezzo in the Serie B (Italy) on 18 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sampdoria 1–2 Arezzo.
Going into the match, Sampdoria had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 17. Arezzo had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Sampdoria's last 10 and 4 of Arezzo's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sampdoria averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Arezzo averaged 1.30 scored and 1.60 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.28 goals from Sampdoria and 1.20 from Arezzo. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 33%, against 50%, 28% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sampdoria (green) and Arezzo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.20 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.91 |
| Sampdoria Win | 50% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie B matches that day
- Cesena vs Avellino · 18 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 1–1 - Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie B
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 3–0