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Primera División · Uruguay
Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Racing Montevideo host Wanderers in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Racing Montevideo 3–0 Wanderers.
Going into the match, Racing Montevideo had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 16. Wanderers had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Racing Montevideo's last 10 and 8 of Wanderers's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Racing Montevideo averaged 1.18 goals scored and 0.91 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Wanderers averaged 1.43 scored and 1.86 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.32 goals from Racing Montevideo and 1.05 from Wanderers. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 28%, against 48%, 28% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Racing Montevideo (green) and Wanderers (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Montevideo | LLLDL | 0.90 | 1.60 | 40% | 50% |
| Wanderers | LDWWL | 1.20 | 1.80 | 80% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 Apr 2026 · Wanderers 1–2 Racing Montevideo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Racing Montevideo Win | 48% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primera División matches that day
- Boston River vs Defensor Sporting · 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Progreso vs Juventud · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 2–0 - Cerro vs Cerro Largo · 16 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.53