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Primera División · Uruguay
Cerro vs Cerro Largo prediction and preview
16 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cerro host Cerro Largo in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 16 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Cerro 1–1 Cerro Largo.
Going into the match, Cerro had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 13. Cerro Largo had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Cerro's last 10 and 5 of Cerro Largo's last 10; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cerro averaged 0.73 goals scored and 1.09 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Cerro Largo averaged 0.55 scored and 1.27 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.06 goals from Cerro and 0.85 from Cerro Largo. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 28%, against 38%, 31% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Cerro (green) and Cerro Largo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro | WLDLL | 1.10 | 1.30 | 60% | 40% |
| Cerro Largo | LLWLL | 0.60 | 1.30 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 30 May 2026 · Cerro Largo 2–0 Cerro
- 11 Apr 2026 · Cerro Largo 1–1 Cerro
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 1X | 69% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.67 |
| Cerro Win | 38% | 2.35 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 35% | 2.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primera División matches that day
- Boston River vs Defensor Sporting · 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Progreso vs Juventud · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 2–0