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Primera División · Uruguay
Progreso vs Juventud prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Progreso host Juventud in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Progreso 2–0 Juventud.
Going into the match, Progreso had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 14. Juventud had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Progreso's last 10 and 3 of Juventud's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Progreso averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.36 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Juventud averaged 1.13 scored and 1.06 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.84 goals from Progreso and 1.14 from Juventud. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 41%, against 28%, 28% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 40%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Progreso (green) and Juventud (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 May 2026 · Juventud 2–0 Progreso
- 12 Apr 2026 · Juventud 1–0 Progreso
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance X2 | 71% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primera División matches that day
- Boston River vs Defensor Sporting · 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Cerro vs Cerro Largo · 16 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.53