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1st Division · Albania
Pogradeci vs Sopoti Librazhd prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Pogradeci host Sopoti Librazhd in the 1st Division (Albania) on 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Pogradeci 2–2 Sopoti Librazhd.
Going into the match, Pogradeci had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 3. Sopoti Librazhd had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 7, with 7 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Pogradeci's last 10 and 5 of Sopoti Librazhd's last 7; 4 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pogradeci averaged 2.38 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Sopoti Librazhd averaged 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.75 goals from Pogradeci and 0.64 from Sopoti Librazhd. From that it rates a home win at 63%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 12%, against 77%, 15% and 8% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 43%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Pogradeci (green) and Sopoti Librazhd (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogradeci | WWDWW | 1.80 | 0.30 | 20% | 40% |
| Sopoti Librazhd | LDDWL | 1.00 | 1.57 | 71% | 29% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.30 |
| BTTS No | 64% | 1.43 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.50 |
| Pogradeci 1st Half Win | 60% | 1.50 |
| Pogradeci HT & FT | 59% | 1.57 |
| 3-0 | 14% | 6.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other 1st Division matches that day
- Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · 1st Division
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.73 · FT 4–1 - Iliria Fushë-Krujë vs Burreli · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · 1st Division
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Korabi Peshkopi vs Bylis · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · 1st Division
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.57