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1st Division · Albania
Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Besëlidhja Lezhë host Kastrioti Krujë in the 1st Division (Albania) on 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Kastrioti Krujë to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.73, which the bookmaker market rated at about 53% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Besëlidhja Lezhë 4–1 Kastrioti Krujë.
Going into the match, Besëlidhja Lezhë had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 8 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Kastrioti Krujë had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Besëlidhja Lezhë's last 8 and 6 of Kastrioti Krujë's last 10; 3 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Besëlidhja Lezhë averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Kastrioti Krujë averaged 1.33 scored and 2.17 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.43 goals from Besëlidhja Lezhë and 0.94 from Kastrioti Krujë. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 24%, against 47%, 28% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Besëlidhja Lezhë (green) and Kastrioti Krujë (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besëlidhja Lezhë | DDWDL | 0.88 | 0.88 | 50% | 38% |
| Kastrioti Krujë | WWDWL | 1.50 | 1.60 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.08 |
| Besëlidhja Lezhë HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
| 1-1 | 13% | 7.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other 1st Division matches that day
- Iliria Fushë-Krujë vs Burreli · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · 1st Division
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Korabi Peshkopi vs Bylis · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · 1st Division
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Pogradeci vs Sopoti Librazhd · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · 1st Division
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 2–2