Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa prediction and preview

17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.44Market probability 64%Final score 0–1

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki host Polonia Warszawa in the I Liga (Poland) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0–1 Polonia Warszawa.

Going into the match, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 18. Polonia Warszawa had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 13 conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's last 10 and 7 of Polonia Warszawa's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Polonia Warszawa averaged 1.47 scored and 1.40 conceded across 15.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.32 goals from Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 1.37 from Polonia Warszawa. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 37%, against 31%, 26% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (green) and Polonia Warszawa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form59% – 41%

Attack55% – 45%

Defence64% – 36%

Head-to-head80% – 20%

Goals65% – 35%

Overall strength63% – 36%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	WLWLW	1.80	1.80	60%	60%
Polonia Warszawa	WWWDL	1.60	1.30	70%	60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	79%	1.20
BTTS 1st Half - No	75%	1.25
Double Chance 12	74%	1.28
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	72%	1.30
Under 3.5 Goals	64%	1.44
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	61%	1.53
BTTS Yes	60%	1.53
Over 2.5 Goals	57%	1.67

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.