Penarol vs Wanderers prediction and preview

31 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC · Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.30Market probability 73%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Penarol host Wanderers in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 31 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Penarol had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Wanderers had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 19 conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of Penarol's last 10 and 7 of Wanderers's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Penarol averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.06 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Wanderers averaged 1.33 scored and 1.93 conceded across 15.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.88 goals from Penarol and 0.76 from Wanderers. From that it rates a home win at 63%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 13%, against 62%, 22% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Penarol (green) and Wanderers (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form50% – 50%

Attack38% – 63%

Defence73% – 27%

Head-to-head80% – 20%

Goals80% – 20%

Overall strength64% – 35%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Penarol	LDLDW	1.10	0.90	60%	30%
Wanderers	LLLDW	1.10	1.90	70%	60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

6 Aug 2026 · Penarol 5–1 Wanderers
27 Apr 2026 · Wanderers 1–0 Penarol

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	78%	1.20
Under 3.5 Goals	73%	1.30
Over 1.5 Goals	71%	1.30
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	68%	1.36
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	66%	1.40
Penarol Win	65%	1.45
BTTS No	56%	1.67
Under 2.5 Goals	52%	1.85

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.