Paris FC vs Monaco prediction and preview

1 Nov 2026, 16:15 UTC · Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.40Market probability 68%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Paris FC host Monaco in the Ligue 1 (France) on 1 Nov 2026, 16:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Paris FC had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 16. Monaco had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 9 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Paris FC's last 10 and 7 of Monaco's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Paris FC averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Monaco averaged 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded across 12.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.28 goals from Paris FC and 1.50 from Monaco. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 41%, against 39%, 27% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Paris FC (green) and Monaco (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form54% – 46%

Attack54% – 46%

Defence46% – 54%

Head-to-head100% – 0%

Goals83% – 17%

Overall strength59% – 40%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Paris FC	LWLWD	1.50	1.60	50%	70%
Monaco	DWLWD	1.90	0.90	70%	60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
BTTS 1st Half - No	78%	1.20
Over 1.5 Goals	75%	1.25
Double Chance 12	73%	1.28
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	70%	1.33
Under 3.5 Goals	68%	1.40
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	65%	1.44
BTTS Yes	57%	1.67
Under 9.5 Corners	54%	1.73

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.