Marseille vs Toulouse prediction and preview

1 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC · Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

The PunterPick prediction

BTTS YesOdds 1.50Market probability 63%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Marseille host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 (France) on 1 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Marseille had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 19. Toulouse had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 14 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Marseille's last 10 and 6 of Toulouse's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Marseille averaged 1.91 goals scored and 1.64 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Toulouse averaged 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded across 7.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.69 goals from Marseille and 1.33 from Toulouse. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 29%, against 49%, 24% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Marseille (green) and Toulouse (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form50% – 50%

Attack55% – 45%

Defence43% – 57%

Head-to-head71% – 29%

Goals58% – 42%

Overall strength53% – 46%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Marseille	WLWLW	1.50	1.90	50%	50%
Toulouse	DWDWD	1.50	1.40	60%	70%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	76%	1.25
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	75%	1.25
BTTS 1st Half - No	73%	1.28
BTTS Yes	63%	1.50
Over 2.5 Goals	62%	1.57
Under 3.5 Goals	59%	1.62
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	58%	1.62
Marseille Win	48%	1.95

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.