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Serie C - Girone A · Italy
Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ospitaletto host Pergolettese in the Serie C - Girone A (Italy) on 18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ospitaletto 2–3 Pergolettese.
Going into the match, Ospitaletto had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 8. Pergolettese had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Ospitaletto's last 10 and 3 of Pergolettese's last 10; 4 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ospitaletto averaged 1.71 goals scored and 0.71 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Pergolettese averaged 0.57 scored and 0.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.11 goals from Ospitaletto and 0.75 from Pergolettese. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 23%, against 52%, 27% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ospitaletto (green) and Pergolettese (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ospitaletto | WDWLD | 1.60 | 0.80 | 50% | 40% |
| Pergolettese | WDDDD | 0.60 | 0.70 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.73 |
| Ospitaletto Win | 50% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie C - Girone A matches that day
- Albinoleffe vs Novara · 18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Serie C - Girone A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 · FT 2–2 - Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina · 18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Serie C - Girone A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33