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Serie C - Girone A · Italy
Albinoleffe vs Novara prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Albinoleffe host Novara in the Serie C - Girone A (Italy) on 18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Albinoleffe 2–2 Novara.
Going into the match, Albinoleffe had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 15. Novara had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Albinoleffe's last 10 and 4 of Novara's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Albinoleffe averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Novara averaged 1.22 scored and 1.00 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.54 goals from Albinoleffe and 1.04 from Novara. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 24%, against 38%, 29% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Albinoleffe (green) and Novara (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albinoleffe | LWDWL | 1.50 | 1.50 | 80% | 60% |
| Novara | LWLDD | 0.80 | 1.20 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie C - Girone A matches that day
- Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina · 18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Serie C - Girone A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese · 18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Serie C - Girone A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36