Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina prediction and preview

18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Over 1.5 GoalsOdds 1.33Market probability 70%Final score 4–1

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Alcione host Desenzano Calvina in the Serie C - Girone A (Italy) on 18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Alcione 4–1 Desenzano Calvina.

Going into the match, Alcione had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 15. Desenzano Calvina had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 7 conceded.

Both teams scored in 7 of Alcione's last 10 and 4 of Desenzano Calvina's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alcione averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Desenzano Calvina averaged 1.25 scored and 0.42 conceded across 12.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.08 goals from Alcione and 1.24 from Desenzano Calvina. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 39%, against 39%, 30% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Alcione (green) and Desenzano Calvina (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form33% – 67%

Attack55% – 45%

Defence29% – 71%

Head-to-head88% – 13%

Goals67% – 33%

Overall strength51% – 48%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Alcione	DDDLD	1.30	1.50	70%	50%
Desenzano Calvina	WWDDL	0.90	0.70	40%	30%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	71%	1.33
Over 1.5 Goals	70%	1.33
Double Chance 1X	69%	1.30
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	66%	1.44
Under 2.5 Goals	55%	1.73
Over 8.5 Corners	54%	1.73
BTTS Yes	51%	1.83
Over 2.5 Goals	45%	2.08

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.