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Ligue 1 · Tunisia
Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Olympique Béja host ES Sahel in the Ligue 1 (Tunisia) on 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Olympique Béja 1–2 ES Sahel.
Going into the match, Olympique Béja had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 14. ES Sahel had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Olympique Béja's last 10 and 5 of ES Sahel's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Olympique Béja averaged 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home ES Sahel averaged 1.14 scored and 2.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.54 goals from Olympique Béja and 1.20 from ES Sahel. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 29%, against 22%, 30% and 48% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 48%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Olympique Béja (green) and ES Sahel (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Béja | LDDLL | 0.80 | 1.40 | 60% | 30% |
| ES Sahel | LLDWL | 0.90 | 1.50 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Apr 2026 · Olympique Béja 3–1 ES Sahel
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 58% | 1.58 |
| ES Sahel Win | 47% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.00 |
| ES Sahel HT & FT | 30% | 3.10 |
| 0-1 | 17% | 5.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 1 matches that day
- AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui · 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.40 - CS Hammam-Lif vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.25 - US Monastirienne vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.48 · FT 1–0