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Ligue 1 · Tunisia
AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
AS Marsa host ES Metlaoui in the Ligue 1 (Tunisia) on 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: AS Marsa 3–0 ES Metlaoui.
Going into the match, AS Marsa had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 10. ES Metlaoui had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of AS Marsa's last 10 and 3 of ES Metlaoui's last 10; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AS Marsa averaged 0.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 4 matches; away from home ES Metlaoui averaged 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.38 goals from AS Marsa and 0.50 from ES Metlaoui. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 12%, against 47%, 31% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between AS Marsa (green) and ES Metlaoui (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Marsa | DWLDL | 0.70 | 1.00 | 30% | 40% |
| ES Metlaoui | LLWLL | 0.70 | 1.00 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 Apr 2026 · ES Metlaoui 1–0 AS Marsa
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 69% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 61% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 56% | 1.65 |
| AS Marsa Win | 46% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 31% | 2.90 |
| AS Marsa HT & FT | 29% | 3.20 |
| 1-0 | 19% | 5.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 1 matches that day
- CS Hammam-Lif vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.25 - US Monastirienne vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.48 · FT 1–0 - Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel · 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 1–2