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Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
Numancia vs Navalcarnero prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Numancia host Navalcarnero in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 (Spain) on 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Numancia Win — Numancia to win. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 54% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Numancia had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Navalcarnero had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Numancia's last 10 and 8 of Navalcarnero's last 10; 2 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Numancia averaged 1.14 goals scored and 0.43 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Navalcarnero averaged 1.44 scored and 1.00 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.92 goals from Numancia and 0.62 from Navalcarnero. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 38% and an away win at 23%, against 57%, 25% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 40%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Numancia | DDDWD | 0.90 | 0.50 | 30% | 20% |
| Navalcarnero | DDDWW | 1.90 | 1.20 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.21 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Numancia Win | 56% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.15 |
| Numancia HT & FT | 36% | 2.55 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Numancia form and statistics
- Navalcarnero form and statistics
- Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 statistics
Other Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches that day
- Atlético Paso vs Real Ávila · 24 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.27 - RSD Alcalá vs SS Reyes · 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.57