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Thai League 2 · Thailand
Nakhon Pathom vs Nong Bua Pitchaya prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Nakhon Pathom host Nong Bua Pitchaya in the Thai League 2 (Thailand) on 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Nong Bua Pitchaya to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Nakhon Pathom 4–3 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Going into the match, Nakhon Pathom had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 8 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Nong Bua Pitchaya had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Nakhon Pathom's last 8 and 8 of Nong Bua Pitchaya's last 10; 3 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Nakhon Pathom averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Nong Bua Pitchaya averaged 0.83 scored and 1.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.43 goals from Nakhon Pathom and 1.73 from Nong Bua Pitchaya. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 44%, against 34%, 29% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Nakhon Pathom (green) and Nong Bua Pitchaya (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nakhon Pathom | LWDDD | 0.75 | 1.13 | 25% | 38% |
| Nong Bua Pitchaya | WDWDL | 1.90 | 1.40 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.70 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.10 |
| Nong Bua Pitchaya Win | 40% | 2.45 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Thai League 2 matches that day
- Phrae United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC · 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Thai League 2
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.30 · FT 0–1 - Police Tero vs Kasetsart FC · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Thai League 2
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 · FT 5–3 - Muang Loei United vs Kanchanaburi · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Thai League 2
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.62 · FT 1–1 - Chiangmai United vs Songkhla · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Thai League 2
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.66