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1. Lig · Turkey
Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Muğlaspor host Bursaspor in the 1. Lig (Turkey) on 15 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Bursaspor Win — Bursaspor to win. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Muğlaspor 0–3 Bursaspor.
Going into the match, Muğlaspor had won 2, drawn 7 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Bursaspor had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Muğlaspor's last 10 and 6 of Bursaspor's last 10; 2 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Muğlaspor averaged 0.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Bursaspor averaged 2.14 scored and 0.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.78 goals from Muğlaspor and 1.53 from Bursaspor. From that it rates a home win at 18%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 54%, against 19%, 25% and 56% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Muğlaspor (green) and Bursaspor (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Bursaspor Win | 57% | 1.60 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other 1. Lig matches that day
- Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor · 15 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1 - Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük · 15 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 · FT 1–0