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1. Lig · Turkey
Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Manisa F.K. host Esenler Erokspor in the 1. Lig (Turkey) on 15 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Manisa F.K. 1–1 Esenler Erokspor.
Going into the match, Manisa F.K. had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 15. Esenler Erokspor had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 5 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Manisa F.K.'s last 10 and 3 of Esenler Erokspor's last 10; 7 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Manisa F.K. averaged 1.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Esenler Erokspor averaged 0.86 scored and 0.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.68 goals from Manisa F.K. and 1.23 from Esenler Erokspor. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 27%, against 28%, 26% and 46% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Manisa F.K. (green) and Esenler Erokspor (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manisa F.K. | LLDLL | 1.90 | 1.50 | 70% | 70% |
| Esenler Erokspor | WLDLD | 0.50 | 1.20 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other 1. Lig matches that day
- Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor · 15 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Bursaspor Win @ 1.60 · FT 0–3 - Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük · 15 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.28 · FT 1–0