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1. Lig · Turkey
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Mardin 1969 host Fatih Karagümrük in the 1. Lig (Turkey) on 15 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Mardin 1969 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Going into the match, Mardin 1969 had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Fatih Karagümrük had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Mardin 1969's last 10 and 8 of Fatih Karagümrük's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Mardin 1969 averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Fatih Karagümrük averaged 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.10 goals from Mardin 1969 and 0.88 from Fatih Karagümrük. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 28%, against 46%, 28% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Mardin 1969 (green) and Fatih Karagümrük (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mardin 1969 | WLLWD | 1.10 | 0.70 | 30% | 30% |
| Fatih Karagümrük | DWDLD | 1.50 | 1.30 | 80% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other 1. Lig matches that day
- Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor · 15 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1 - Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor · 15 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · 1. Lig
Published pick: Bursaspor Win @ 1.60 · FT 0–3