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Championship · Scotland
Morton vs Ayr Utd prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Morton host Ayr Utd in the Championship (Scotland) on 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Morton had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 17. Ayr Utd had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Morton's last 10 and 5 of Ayr Utd's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Morton averaged 0.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Ayr Utd averaged 1.30 scored and 1.40 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.68 goals from Morton and 1.43 from Ayr Utd. From that it rates a home win at 17%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 54%, against 31%, 27% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 84%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Morton (green) and Ayr Utd (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 29 Aug 2026 · Ayr Utd 1–1 Morton
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Championship matches that day
- Livingston vs Arbroath · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Partick vs Stenhousemuir · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Partick Win @ 1.40 - Queen's Park vs Dunfermline · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Dunfermline Win @ 1.53 - Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33