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Championship · Scotland
Livingston vs Arbroath prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Livingston host Arbroath in the Championship (Scotland) on 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Livingston had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 11. Arbroath had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Livingston's last 10 and 4 of Arbroath's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Livingston averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Arbroath averaged 0.67 scored and 1.58 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.97 goals from Livingston and 0.59 from Arbroath. From that it rates a home win at 69%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 9%, against 67%, 20% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Livingston (green) and Arbroath (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston | DLLWD | 1.20 | 1.10 | 40% | 40% |
| Arbroath | LLLWL | 0.70 | 1.50 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 29 Aug 2026 · Arbroath 1–0 Livingston
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Livingston Win | 69% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Championship matches that day
- Morton vs Ayr Utd · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Partick vs Stenhousemuir · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Partick Win @ 1.40 - Queen's Park vs Dunfermline · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Dunfermline Win @ 1.53 - Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT · 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33