Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi prediction and preview

16 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Double Chance X2Odds 1.36Market probability 68%Final score 0–0

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Mebrat Hayl host Negelle Arsi in the Premier League (Ethiopia) on 16 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Negelle Arsi to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Negelle Arsi.

Going into the match, Mebrat Hayl had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Negelle Arsi had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 11 conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of Mebrat Hayl's last 10 and 4 of Negelle Arsi's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Mebrat Hayl averaged 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Negelle Arsi averaged 0.71 scored and 1.57 conceded across 7.

Our team-strength model expects about 0.82 goals from Mebrat Hayl and 0.96 from Negelle Arsi. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 36% and an away win at 36%, against 33%, 34% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Mebrat Hayl (green) and Negelle Arsi (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form0% – 100%

Attack0% – 100%

Defence50% – 50%

Head-to-head80% – 20%

Goals100% – 0%

Overall strength65% – 35%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Mebrat Hayl	LWDWD	1.00	1.00	60%	40%
Negelle Arsi	DLWDW	1.10	1.10	40%	50%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 1X	67%	1.36
BTTS No	63%	1.46
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	53%	1.77
Draw	35%	2.70
Negelle Arsi Win	33%	2.70
0-0	22%	4.33

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.